Military aircraft + aero-engines are newly installed/updated to promote the growth of high-end titanium alloy demand
The military budget is increasing year by year, and the growth potential of military aircraft is huge. In recent years, China's military expenditure has continued to grow, with an average annual compound growth rate of 7.2% from 2017 to 2021. With the continuous improvement of my country's comprehensive national strength, national defense construction has achieved "compensatory" development. It is expected that the compound growth rate in the next five years is expected to reach 7.5%. There is a huge demand for the deployment of military aircraft.
There is a big gap in the number of fighter jets between China and the US Air Force, and the demand for military aircraft installation drives the rapid development of the high-end titanium alloy industry. According to the "World air force 2021" released by Flightglobal, as of the end of 2020, there were 53,563 active military aircraft in the world. From a structural point of view, the fourth-generation J-20 aircraft only accounted for 2% of the total fighter aircraft, and the second-generation aircraft accounted for only 2% of the total fighter aircraft. The total number of fighters reached 47%; while the United States has achieved more than three generations, and the most advanced fourth-generation aircraft accounted for 17% of all fighters. At present, there is a big gap in the number of fighter jets between China and the US Air Force. my country's military aircraft will develop in a "compensatory" way in the future. Military titanium alloys will be released with new aircraft + maintenance and replacement + the value of a single aircraft will increase.
The proportion of titanium alloys in my country's military aircraft continues to increase with the growth of military aircraft performance. It is mainly used in the body structure and engine parts of military aircraft. It has an irreplaceable role in reducing structural weight, improving structural efficiency, improving structural reliability, improving airframe life, and meeting high temperature and corrosive environments. An important factor in the tactical performance of military aircraft. At present, the amount of titanium alloy in advanced fighters and bombers in Europe and the United States has stabilized at more than 20%, and the F-22 series fighters have reached 41%. my country's fighter jets have developed from the second-generation aircraft J-8 to the fourth-generation aircraft J-20, and the proportion of titanium alloys is also increasing, from 2% to 20%.
With the new generation of aircraft installed, it is expected that the growth rate of my country's military aircraft scale will reach 9%, and the growth rate of the titanium alloy industry is expected to reach 25%. According to "world Air force 2021", it is estimated that the demand for various types of military aircraft in my country will reach 1,760 in the next five years, and the scale of my country's military aircraft will increase from 3,187 to 4,947, with a compound growth rate of 9.2%. With the gradual increase in the proportion of titanium alloys used in military aircraft in my country, the growth rate of the military titanium alloy industry is expected to reach 15%-25%, and the growth rate of related companies is expected to reach more than 30%.
Sales of titanium materials for aerospace are increasing: high-end titanium alloys have become one of the main structural materials for aircraft and engines in the aerospace sector. Titanium alloy material has the characteristics of high specific strength, good high temperature resistance, high corrosion resistance and long life. It is mainly used in aircraft landing gear parts, fuselage beams, frames and fasteners, engine fans, compressors, Blades, drums, casings, etc., as well as helicopter hubs, connectors, etc. According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from 2011 to 2020, the sales volume of titanium materials for domestic aerospace increased from 4,080 tons to 17,288 tons, with a compound growth rate of 15.5%, and a year-on-year growth rate of 36.7% in 2020.
It is estimated that in the next five years, the new demand for titanium alloys for various types of aircraft in my country will be 20,000 tons. According to "world Air force 2021", the demand for various types of military aircraft in my country is expected to reach 1,760 in the next five years, of which about 200 are new fourth-generation aircraft, and the corresponding titanium consumption will reach 720 tons. Because the mechanical properties of the raw materials do not meet the standards in the later forging or heat treatment process, resulting in scrap (the yield); and in the later material processing process due to cutting, deep drawing and other processes to form scraps, the scraps may have stress concentration or inappropriate shape and size, The reason why it cannot continue to be used is that the high-performance titanium alloy has a high loss rate. We calculate the actual titanium consumption according to 10 times the titanium consumption of a single aircraft. It is expected that the actual titanium consumption of titanium alloys for my country's military aircraft fuselage will reach 20,000 tons in the next five years.
Titanium alloys are also used in aircraft engines, accounting for 25%-30% of the total engine weight. Titanium alloys are used in front-end fans and low-pressure compressors of aero-engines. The working temperature range of blades, discs, and casings made of them is generally 350 to 400 °C, generally not exceeding 600 °C.
At present, the proportion of domestic engines used in my country's military aircraft is not high. The growth of titanium used in engines comes from the increase in the number of military aircraft themselves and the update of generations, on the other hand, from the development progress of domestic engines and the increase in the future configuration rate, such as The J-20 and J-11B military aircraft were replaced with domestically produced "Taihang" engines.
It is estimated that the demand for titanium alloys will reach 54,000 tons in the next five years, including 14,000 tons for new military aircraft engines and 40,000 tons for maintenance. At present, titanium alloys in engines are mainly used in the medium temperature region (ceramic matrix composite materials are used in the low temperature region, and nickel-based or cobalt-based superalloys are used in the high-temperature region), and the mass ratio is about 25%. In addition, we assume that the engine assembly ratio is 1:1.2, that is, 20% of the spare engine is required. It is estimated that in the next five years, the consumption of titanium alloys for military aircraft engines in my country will reach 14,000 tons. In the average service life of the engine of 10 years, the engine needs to be overhauled once, and the engine needs to be repaired 2-3 times. The overhaul value accounts for 50% of the value of the whole machine, and the ordinary maintenance is about 10%-15%. It is assumed that the engine is repaired in 5 years. On the basis of China's existing 3,260 military aircraft + new generation aircraft, we estimate that the titanium alloy demand for military aircraft engine maintenance in the next five years will be about 40,000 tons, and domestic replacement The space is huge.
The all-round strategic initiative highlights the status of missiles, an important milestone in the construction of the Rocket Force. It can be seen from many modern information wars that missiles have become more and more important in war defense attacks due to their excellent combat performance. The overall technical strength of my country's active missiles is in an international leading position, but the number of equipment configurations is relatively low, and there is a big gap with the United States. The People's Liberation Army Rocket Army established in my country, which is mainly composed of an attack and defense system with missiles as its core, further demonstrates the importance of the missile industry in my country's military industry. The use of titanium alloy materials in missile weapon systems can reduce the launch weight, increase the range and increase the operating temperature of the structural parts. In order to reduce the mass of the whole bomb, increase the charge of the warhead (increase the loading factor), strengthen the damage capability, and meet the high temperature effect brought by supersonic flight, some advanced missile warheads began to be made of titanium alloy materials. Russian experience shows that after the semi-armor-piercing warhead shell is changed to high-strength, high-toughness, and relatively low-density titanium alloy materials, the loading factor can be increased to 50%, and the damage power of the warhead is significantly improved.
In several local wars in the 1990s, the proportion of precision-guided munitions used gradually reached more than 70%. Missiles are one of the main types of precision-guided munitions, occupying an extremely important position in the military forces of various countries in the world today. According to different performance characteristics, missiles can be classified in various ways.
my country's missile equipment system is sound, with world-leading performance. China's missile technology started in the 1950s. After the process from imitation to independent research and development, it has now reached a world-class level and has a complete missile system: including strategic missiles Dongfeng series (surface-to-surface ballistic missiles), Julang series (submarine-launched missiles) ), tactical missiles Red Flag series (surface-to-air missiles), Changjian series (cruise missiles), Eagle Strike series (air-to-ship missiles), Thunderbolt series (air-to-air missiles), Changying series (anti-submarine and anti-ship missiles), Hongjian series (anti-submarine and anti-ship missiles) tank missiles) etc. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the rapid negotiation of new weapons and equipment and the intensified consumption of "combat training", it is expected that the demand for missiles will increase significantly:
1. The new aircraft supporting demand brought about by the rapid volume of new sea and air weapons and equipment. Starting from the "13th Five-Year Plan", new weapons platforms (ships, aviation) will continue to increase in quantity, and the supporting equipment of missiles as weapon platforms also needs to be increased accordingly. And relative to the growth of weapon platforms, missiles, as a kind of "consumables" on weapon platforms, need to have corresponding reserves, which will bring greater demand. 2. In the context of actual combat training, the consumption of small and medium-sized missiles has increased. In March 2014, the Central Military Commission issued the "Opinions on Improving the Level of Practical Training of Military Training", which first mentioned "combat-based training". Since then, the Central Military Commission and others have repeatedly emphasized "focusing on war preparations" and "practical training". "Combatization" has been the guiding ideology of our country's military training. "Combat-based training" will lead to increased ammunition consumption:
2. Civil market: domestic large aircraft/high-end chemical industry/ocean engineering and other civil titanium materials have a broad market
The amount of titanium used in major civil aircraft such as Boeing and Airbus has gradually increased. Reducing the weight of the aircraft, increasing the carrying capacity and reducing the fuel consumption is an important basis for airlines to choose aircraft, and increasing the amount of titanium materials is of great significance for the development of future civil passenger aircraft. With the development of the times, the amount of titanium used in the main models of Boeing and Airbus has gradually increased, and the amount of titanium used in the B787 has reached 15%.
The commercialization of the C919 large passenger aircraft promotes the expansion of demand for titanium alloys. The C919 large passenger aircraft is a large civil jet aircraft developed by my country in accordance with international civil aviation regulations and with independent intellectual property rights. It successfully flew for the first time in 2017. After comprehensively considering the maturity, cost and delivery cycle of titanium alloys, C919 adopts 6 types of titanium alloy grades of low strength and high plasticity, medium strength and medium toughness, medium strength and high toughness, high strength and high toughness and system materials. The product forms cover forgings, thick plates, profiles, pipes, wires, etc., and are used in aircraft hangers, noses, central wings, outer wings, tail wings and other parts. The delivery of the C919 is imminent, the industrialization process of domestic large aircraft is about to accelerate, and China's civil aviation manufacturing industry will also usher in a golden period of its own development, and the market of 100 billion yuan will gradually open.
Aircraft orders + deliveries continue to increase. On February 9, 2006, the State Council issued the Outline of the National Medium- and Long-Term Science and Technology Development Plan (2006-2020), which included "large aircraft" as one of the 16 major special projects. As of March 2019, the number of orders for the C919 has reached 815, and the number of orders for the new turbofan regional aircraft ARJ21-700 has reached 592 as of February 2019. The development of domestic commercial aircraft has pushed China's aviation market into a new stage, and there is huge room for growth in the future. The domestic large aircraft market has a broad market space, and the cumulative demand for titanium materials for civil aviation in the next five years will reach 30,000 tons. According to COMAC data, compared with the 4.8% titanium content of ARJ21, the proportion of titanium alloy in C919 has reached 9.3%, and the amount of titanium material used in a single machine has reached 10.11 tons. With the continuous expansion of my country's civil aviation market, it is expected that the demand for titanium materials for domestic large aircraft will reach 30,000 tons in the next five years.
It is estimated that in the next five years, the domestic demand for military and civil aerospace titanium materials will total 110,000 tons, with a compound growth rate of 16%. Since 2016, under the guidance of supply-side reform, outdated production capacity has been gradually shut down and eliminated, and the industrial concentration has continued to increase. Considering that the proportion of titanium materials for aerospace in China is much lower than 50% of the total demand for titanium materials for aerospace in the world, it is estimated that the domestic aerospace titanium market demand will accumulate to 110,000 tons in the next five years. The industry compound growth rate is 16%.
