The military budget is increasing year by year, and the growth potential of military aircraft is huge. In recent years, China's military expenditure has continued to grow, with an average annual compound growth rate of 7.2% from 2017 to 2021. With the continuous improvement of my country's comprehensive national strength, national defense construction has achieved "compensatory" development. It is expected that the compound growth rate in the next five years is expected to reach 7.5%. There is a huge demand for the deployment of military aircraft.
There is a big gap in the number of fighter jets between China and the US Air Force, and the demand for military aircraft installation drives the rapid development of the high-end titanium alloy industry. According to the "World air force 2021" released by Flightglobal, as of the end of 2020, there were 53,563 active military aircraft in the world. From a structural point of view, the fourth-generation J-20 aircraft only accounted for 2% of the total fighter aircraft, and the second-generation aircraft accounted for only 2% of the total fighter aircraft. The total number of fighters reached 47%; while the United States has achieved more than three generations, and the most advanced fourth-generation aircraft accounted for 17% of all fighters. At present, there is a big gap in the number of fighter jets between China and the US Air Force. my country's military aircraft will undergo "compensatory" development in the future. Military titanium alloys will be released with new aircraft + maintenance and replacement + the value of a single aircraft will increase.
The proportion of titanium alloys in my country's military aircraft continues to increase with the growth of military aircraft performance. It is mainly used in the body structure and engine parts of military aircraft. It has an irreplaceable role in reducing structural weight, improving structural efficiency, improving structural reliability, improving airframe life, and meeting high temperature and corrosive environments. An important factor in the tactical performance of military aircraft. At present, the amount of titanium alloy in advanced fighters and bombers in Europe and the United States has stabilized at more than 20%, and the F-22 series fighters have reached 41%. my country's fighter jets have developed from the second-generation aircraft J-8 to the fourth-generation aircraft J-20, and the proportion of titanium alloys is also increasing, from 2% to 20%.
Sales of titanium materials for aerospace are increasing: high-end titanium alloy materials have become one of the main structural materials for aircraft and engines in the aerospace field. Titanium alloy material has the characteristics of high specific strength, good high temperature resistance, high corrosion resistance and long life. It is mainly used in aircraft landing gear parts, fuselage beams, frames and fasteners, engine fans, compressors, Blades, drums, casings, etc., as well as helicopter hubs, connectors, etc. According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from 2011 to 2020, the sales volume of titanium materials for domestic aerospace increased from 4,080 tons to 17,288 tons, with a compound growth rate of 15.5%, and a year-on-year growth rate of 36.7% in 2020.
Civil market: domestic large aircraft / high-end chemical / marine engineering and other civil titanium materials have a broad market
The amount of titanium used in major civil aircraft such as Boeing and Airbus has gradually increased. Reducing the weight of the aircraft, increasing the carrying capacity and reducing the fuel consumption is an important basis for airlines to choose aircraft, and increasing the amount of titanium materials is of great significance for the development of future civil passenger aircraft. With the development of the times, the amount of titanium used in the main models of Boeing and Airbus has gradually increased, and the amount of titanium used in the B787 has reached 15%.
The commercialization of the C919 large passenger aircraft promotes the expansion of titanium alloy demand. The C919 large passenger aircraft is a large civil jet aircraft developed by my country in accordance with international civil aviation regulations and with independent intellectual property rights. It successfully made its maiden flight in 2017. After comprehensively considering the maturity, cost and delivery cycle of titanium alloys, C919 adopts 6 types of titanium alloy grades of low strength and high plasticity, medium strength and medium toughness, medium strength and high toughness, high strength and high toughness and system materials. The product forms cover forgings, thick plates, profiles, pipes, wires, etc., and are used in aircraft hangers, noses, central wings, outer wings, tail wings and other parts. The delivery of the C919 is imminent, the industrialization process of domestic large aircraft is about to accelerate, and China's civil aviation manufacturing industry will also usher in a golden period of its own development, and the market of 100 billion yuan will gradually open.
It is estimated that in the next five years, the domestic demand for military and civil aerospace titanium materials will total 110,000 tons, with a compound growth rate of 16%. Since 2016, under the guidance of supply-side reform, outdated production capacity has been gradually shut down and eliminated, and the industrial concentration has continued to increase. Considering that the proportion of titanium materials for aerospace in China is much lower than 50% of the total demand for titanium materials for aerospace in the world, it is estimated that the domestic aerospace titanium market demand will accumulate to 110,000 tons in the next five years. The industry compound growth rate is 16%.
