From 1950 to 2000, the development of China's titanium industry was very slow, and the expansion of application fields was naturally limited. Even the National Titanium Application Promotion Leading Group was established in the early 1980s, but it had little effect. The slow development in the 20th century may have bred vitality and potential for the rapid and sustainable development of China's titanium industry in the 21st century. Therefore, from the international historical background, it can be seen that the former Soviet Union, Japan, and the United States used a large amount of titanium for expansion in economic and military fields, while China used a small amount of titanium. The international historical background has laid the seeds of repairing and filling the gap for the strong and sustainable development of China's titanium industry in this century and expanded the just-needed driving force for the application of titanium.
More than a year later, when I think about the analysis of the international titanium potential, there must be new connotations and motivations. Especially due to the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the titanium potential must have subtle changes, but the world titanium potential will not change much in the short term. The change. Because the current global titanium potential is analyzed in terms of sponge titanium, titanium ingots, and titanium materials, the largest sector is undoubtedly China (accounting for more than 50% of global output), the second-largest sector in Japan, and the third-largest sector in Japan. The largest plate is Russia, and the fourth is Kazakhstan, Ukraine, etc. (Ukraine has mineral resources, but due to the country's economic situation and the shortage of enterprise funds, the actual production of titanium sponges is very small, mainly exporting titanium ore resources). Titanium materials are widely used in Russia, Japan, the United States (mainly Boeing, military), Europe (mainly Airbus, high-end fields), China, Germany, France, South Korea, and many other countries. Russia exports both sponge titanium and titanium ingots, Japan basically only exports sponge titanium (titanium ingots for their own use), and Kazakhstan and Ukraine also use and export them. The above is the main flow of titanium ore, titanium sponge, titanium ingot, and titanium material.
Let’s take a look at the specific trend of titanium: no matter what the Cold War and sanctions between Europe, the United States, and Russia, titanium resources are still in circulation, a large part of the titanium products used in Airbus and Boeing aircraft shells are made by Russia’s Avista provided by the company. This is politics for politics. As long as the product quality is good, Airbus and Boeing will still approach competitors, which is also a need in a certain field of the country. Many nuclear and titanium materials in the United States are also purchased from Russia, such as the RD-180 rocket engine, nuclear materials, and titanium. These are high-end goods for both military and civilian use. It is said that half of the titanium used on Boeing aircraft in the United States comes from Russia. . Not only the United States but also European and NATO countries import titanium from Russia; the sponge titanium produced by Osaka Titanium and Toho Titanium in Japan has maintained an export share of about 50% due to its high quality, stable quality and high export ratio. The United States and Europe are the main countries and regions for Japan’s titanium sponge exports; Kazakhstan’s Usky Kamenogorsk Titanium and Magnesium Company produces between 15,000 and 20,000 tons of sponge titanium, about 6,000 tons of titanium ingots, and exports of sponge titanium. About 30%, of titanium ingots, are exported to the Netherlands, France, South Korea, China, the United States, and Russia. It can be seen that the international trend of titanium has not been affected by politics, and there are still trade exchanges between countries.
Why is it said that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has subtle changes in the titanium potential in the short term but not much change, especially since the overall impact on the domestic titanium potential is minimal?
The worsening of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the intensification of the crisis may affect exports of aluminum, copper, and titanium. This possibility exists, but now that the world economy is integrated, direct retaliation cannot avoid indirect trade (intermediary transactions), but only adds intermediate links. This is a subtle change in the supply chain. What's more, Avista's market share and product base are relatively large, and it is difficult for European airlines to completely break away from Avista. The production of the industrial chain will not have much impact. What's more, the target destroyed by this Russia-Ukraine conflict is the military base, Ukraine's titanium sponge output has been very low in recent years, and its export is titanium ore resources. Ukraine has little influence on the titanium potential; if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict affects The titanium industry production of the two countries has retaliated against the Russian metal export. The Japanese sponge titanium products will have a quick supplement due to their good quality and stable quality. Moreover, Japanese sponge titanium itself is a long-term main supplier of Airbus and Boeing. Since the titanium industry is currently a niche metal, it can be supplemented by a little tiptoe. Therefore, in the short term, there will be only subtle changes in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict without major changes.
The above mentioned is the international titanium potential outside of China. If the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has a great and profound change in the international titanium situation, it will be a "deep" continuation of war, and I believe that no one wants that to happen. Because it's not just the turmoil of the Tau, but the turmoil of the earth.
Let’s analyze the subtle changes in the titanium potential caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict from a domestic perspective:
First of all, China is a big producer of titanium and a big consumer of titanium. The output of sponge titanium, titanium ingots, and titanium materials all account for more than 50% of the world's share. Although demand has been rising, the matching between upstream and downstream is somewhat unbalanced, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will not have much impact on the domestic titanium potential in the short term. If it is to be affected unless the international titanium market has an impact on aluminum, copper, titanium, and other metals in the international titanium market, resulting in a short-term tension and a sharp price increase, the proportion of domestic sponge titanium and other exports to foreign countries has increased, and at the same time, domestic price increases have been triggered.
Secondly, if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict triggers a price increase in the international titanium market, and the price increase is relatively low, the impact on the domestic titanium market will not be too great, because the current price of magnesium ingots is still high above 40,000 yuan/ton. Process sponge titanium enterprises still do not have many temptations, which is good for the whole process. However, as long as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine leads to a slight rise in the international titanium market, it will also be traction for the domestic titanium market to rise in price. In the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can only have a weak impact on the international titanium situation.
Third, if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine really leads Russia to retaliate against titanium metal exports, the biggest short-term benefit maybe Japan, because the overall quality of Japanese sponge titanium products is good, stable in quality, uniform, and consistent, and it is already Airbus, Boeing's long-term customers. This is not to say that the quality of domestic titanium sponge products is not good, but that the high-quality titanium sponge of many domestic enterprises such as Jintai Co., Ltd., Baoti Huashan, Zunyi Titanium Industry, etc. is not enough for domestic Baoti Group, Northwest Institute, and other downstream enterprises. Moreover, the use of high-quality sponge titanium and titanium materials by Airbus and Boeing requires a long-term use verification and audit process. At present, although domestic sponge titanium, titanium ingots, and titanium materials occupy more than half of the world, the phenomenon of "inadequate high-end products and surplus at low-end products" exists objectively. Titanium in Russia and Japan is used in large quantities in high-end fields such as Airbus and Boeing. This is a mirror - it illuminates that we should become a major titanium producer and consumer country, and also become a major titanium industry power.
Why does Russia always take the lead in the titanium industry, because the titanium alloy industry of the former Soviet Union is the world's leading industry, and this leading has been extended to Russia and has been maintained in the inheritance? Of course, China also has its own leading technologies in many high-end fields such as aerospace, aviation, and navigation in the titanium industry. For example, 3D printing titanium materials are at the world's leading level. 3D titanium printing.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has brought a lot of thinking. Only by being strong can you have strength, and only by doing well can you have a chance.
Understanding the international historical background and analyzing the current international situation, the titanium industry is still promising, but the optimization and integration of the titanium industry to become bigger, better, and stronger will also see major changes in the next 5-10 years! The best are better, and the poor are out. This will be the path for the scientific and healthy development of my country's titanium industry.
